The North Korean problem is 'Made in China'

[Drums of War]

Here is a great article that I think sheds light on whats going on in the Korean Peninsula right now. Gordon G. Chang rightly explains that the problem we are facing now is 'Made in China'. If China wanted they could stop North Korea. They could stop the supplies of food and energy. The could pull support and watch as the regime falls. The problem is China wants a strong North Korea. They want a problem to keep the US interested in so the US leaves them alone as they continuing building their massive army. Cina also wants a "buffer" state between them and the thousands of US troops on the S. Korean border.

Hours after the Democratic People's Republic of Korea detonated its second atomic device, Beijing condemned the test. "The DPRK conducted another nuclear test in disregard of the common opposition of the international community," a Foreign Ministry statement, issued May 25, noted. "The Chinese government is firmly opposed to this act."

Is that so? Today, China supplies about 90% of North Korea's oil, 80% of its consumer goods and 45% of its food. Beijing is Pyongyang's only formal military ally and its primary backer in the United Nations Security Council and other diplomatic forums. If it weren't for the Chinese, there would be no North Korean missile program, no North Korean nuclear program and no North Korea.

Kim Jong Il, Pyongyang's coldly rational leader, knows he could not survive the loss of China's material and diplomatic support. If Chairman Kim doesn't appear to listen to his sponsors in Beijing in every instance, it's largely because they don't expect obedience each and every time. The Chinese pursue their plan of supporting the North because they know they have influence and can use it at any moment. Kim detonated a nuclear weapon in the last few hours because he knew the Chinese did not object to him doing so. He would not dare cross Beijing on a matter of such critical importance.

For the last eight years, the United States has had a Korea policy that can be described in one word: China. President Bush looked to Beijing to contain Pyongyang and disarm Kim. Yet during his administration the Chinese gave the North Korean leader the one thing he needed most to develop nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them: time. The Chinese counseled patience while the so-called six-party talks, which began in 2003, dragged on, but they failed to broker a solution even though they could have done so.

Many Chinese officials, especially in the Foreign Ministry, know their country's Korea policy is counterproductive in the long run because it will eventually lead to the nuclearization of the region and thereby the marginalization of Beijing's relative power. Yet there is no consensus in the upper echelons of the Communist Party and the People's Liberation Army to change long-held policies. Apparently, President Hu Jintao finds Kim useful in the short-term for keeping Japan and South Korea off-balance and in extracting concessions from the United States.

Today, President Obama said North Korea's acts "pose a grave threat to the peace and stability of the world." So what should his administration do? From all accounts, his senior Asia officials feel the United States has no leverage on Beijing. That assessment could not be more wrong. The legitimacy of the Chinese political system rests largely on the continual delivery of prosperity, and that prosperity depends on access to the American market.

In 2008, all but $29.2 billion of China's overall trade surplus of $295.5 billion related to sales to the United States. In 2007, all but $5.9 billion of the overall surplus of $262.2 billion was attributable to sales to America. The United States relies on Beijing to buy American debt, but the Chinese export machine cannot function if China does not buy our obligations. If Beijing does not do so, it will further constrain the American economy. If Beijing further constrains the American economy, Americans will be able to buy even fewer Chinese goods than they are at the moment. If Americans buy fewer Chinese goods, the Chinese economy will fall even faster than it is doing so now. And if the Chinese economy declines any faster, the country's political system will face increased tensions and difficulties.

So the White House has leverage, especially because the balance of power in Asia has shifted decisively toward the United States. In the past, Beijing could stand behind Pyongyang because Tokyo and the so-called "progressive" governments in Seoul--first under Kim Dae-jung and then Roh Moo-hyun--were doing the same. In short, the Japanese and South Koreans, Washington's two principal allies in the region, were giving the Chinese cover to continue with their long-time program of supporting the North.

Yet China's cover did not last. First Japan under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and then South Korea under President Lee Myung-bak got out of the business of propping up Chairman Kim Jong Il. That has left Beijing alone in its support of the abhorrent regime in Pyongyang. In the past, the Chinese have defied Washington when they had company but were almost always cooperative when they did not.

Unfortunately, the Bush White House did not take advantage of changing circumstances in Asia and was unwilling to make China choose between its future--cooperation with the United States and the international community--and its past--relations with Kim's Korea. Today, the Obama administration is making the same fundamental mistake.

President Obama will never have a successful Korea policy until he has a successful Chinese one. North Korea can continue to defy the international community as long as it has Beijing's support. So we don't have a North Korea problem. We have a China one.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/05/25/kim...rth-korea.html

[St. Anger]

Originally Posted by Drums of War

Here is a great article that I think sheds light on whats going on in the Korean Peninsula right now. Gordon G. Chang rightly explains that the problem we are facing now is 'Made in China'. If China wanted they could stop North Korea. They could stop the supplies of food and energy. The could pull support and watch as the regime falls. The problem is China wants a strong North Korea. They want a problem to keep the US interested in so the US leaves them alone as they continuing building their massive army. Cina also wants a "buffer" state between them and the thousands of US troops on the S. Korean border.

China wants North Korea as sort of a poker chip against the US. Real friend they are....

[And Justice for All]

I agree Drums and this problem wanst made yesterday. For 15 years the US has been trying to stop nuclear and missile developments in North Korea only to fail miserably.

Here's a timeline.

— 1994: Under agreement with U.S., North Korea pledges to freeze and eventually dismantle its nuclear weapons program in exchange for help building two safer power-producing nuclear reactors.

— Aug. 31, 1998: North Korea fires suspected missile over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean, calling it a satellite.

— Sept. 13, 1999: North pledges to freeze long-range missile tests.

— July 2001: U.S. State Department reports North Korea is developing long-range missile.

— December 2001: President George W. Bush warns Iraq and North Korea will be "held accountable" if they develop weapons of mass destruction.

— Jan. 10, 2003: North Korea announces withdrawal from Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

— August 2003: North Korea joins first round of six-nation nuclear talks in Beijing with China, U.S., Japan, Russia and South Korea.

— July 5, 2006: North Korea launches seven missiles into waters between the Korean peninsula and Japan, including a medium-range Taepodong-2.

— July 15, 2006: U.N. Security Council adopts Resolution 1695 demanding North Korea halt missile program.

— Oct. 9, 2006: North Korea conducts underground nuclear test blast after citing "extreme threat of a nuclear war" from U.S.

— Oct. 15, 2006: U.N. Security Council adopts Resolution 1718 condemning test, imposing sanctions and banning North Korea from all activities related to its nuclear weapons program.

— Feb. 13, 2007: North Korea agrees to disable its main nuclear facilities in return for energy aid and other benefits.

— July 14, 2007: North Korea shuts down main Yongbyon reactor, later starts disabling it.

— June 27, 2008: North Korea destroys cooling tower at Yongbyon.

— Sept. 19, 2008: North Korea says it is restoring nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.

— Oct. 11, 2008: U.S. removes North Korea from a list of states that sponsor terrorism.

— Feb. 15, 2009: North Korea claims it has the right to "space development."

— Feb. 23: South Korea says North Korea has a new type of ballistic missile capable of reaching northern Australia and Guam.

— April 5: North Korea launches long-range rocket from its base on the country's northeast coast.

— April 13: U.N. Security Council condemns launch.

— April 14: North Korea announces withdrawal from disarmament talks and says it will restore partly disabled nuclear facilities.

— April 25: North Korea announces start of reprocessing of spent fuel rods from its nuclear plant. A U.N. Security Council committee approves new sanctions on three major North Korean companies in response to the rocket launch.

— April 29: North Korea threatens to conduct nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests unless the U.N. Security Council apologizes for criticizing its long-range rocket launch.

— May 7-12: Special U.S. envoy on North Korea visits Asia, says Washington is ready for direct talks with Pyongyang.

— May 8: North Korea dismisses talks with U.S. as useless, citing Washington's "hostile policy."

— May 25: North Korea conducted underground nuclear and test-fires two short-range missiles. U.N. Security Council condemns test as violation of U.N. resolutions.

— May 26: North Korea test-fires three short-range missiles.

— May 29: North Korea test-fires one short-range missile.

[B.O.]

Originally Posted by St. Anger

China wants North Korea as sort of a poker chip against the US. Real friend they are....

China is no friend of the US. If they were they wouldn't be holding a gun to our heads called North Korea.

[NYC]

Not since the Cuban Missile Crisis, October, 1962, has the nuclear threat to America been so evident. The long history of Kim’s threats, which normally translated into his way of receiving recognition and aid, no longer mirror his actions of the past. He is more defiant, more aggressive and one can assume by his tests and multiple missile launches he is set on developing the technology and delivery system to rain destruction not only to our shores but also to Japan and South Korea. Given, what I consider, his sick state of mental health, age, lack of concern for his people, and illnesses, I would not put it past Kim to sacrifice whole of his country for the ability to leave his final mark on the world by attempting to destroy those he so desperately hates. Those of us that remember the days of the Cuban Crisis know JFK did more, much more, than simply attempting to gain support from other countries and proclaim idle warnings of consequences. Unfortunately, we do not have a leader that has the knowledge, experience or cabinet today as we did in 1962. I have my concerns whether this threat will end with the same happiness as it did back in the good old days.